Saturday, January 12, 2008

Prospect Perspective: Fernando Martinez

Well, since there has been a lot of talk recently about Fernando Martinez being sent to Minnesota in a deal for Johan Santana, I've decided to add him to my list of "Prospect Perspective" posts.

Value: Fernando's value may have taken a bit of a hit following his .265 Average between A and AA ball. However, it's very hard to say that an average season could hinder the value of a 19-year-old outfielder who has the tools to someday become a great outfielder. Any player being discussed as the centerpiece in a trade for the greatest pitcher in baseball, before their twentieth birthday, has to have tremendous value. Overall Value: A

Ability: Fernando may only be 19, but he has the pitch recognition and strike zone awareness of a ten year veteran. His major flaw; however, is his tendency to press whenever he goes into a slump; but, this is common among young players and should not take anything away from the way he is perceived as a stud prospect. He hits well to all fields, which some scouts projections say, will lead to him having home run power to all fields once his body fills out. Also Martinez struggles up against strong left-handed pitching. Unlike Carlos Gomez, the man F-mart is so wrongly compared to, Fernando isn't all that great defensively. He'll get bad reads on balls periodically, causing him to take peculiar routes after making questionable first steps. Scouts also believe he'll possibly lose some of his above-average speed as he continues to grow. These flaws in his defense lead most to believe he'll end up as an average corner outfielder defensively. Overall Ability: B+

Future: There's hardly any doubt that Martinez has a future in the majors. The real question is what kind of major league career will he have. It is very hard to determine the future of a 19-year-old who hasn't seen the Majors. But, I'll try to anyway. I see F-Mart as an above-average, everyday player. He'll mostly have years of 20-25 HR's, 80-90 RBI's, 280-310 AVG., 350-380 OBP. That's a pretty solid line, though not as dominate as some ignorant Met fans perceive. Bottom line, he isn't the centerpiece the Twins are looking for; but, is he close enough? Overall Future: A

Overall Prospect Rating: A, F-Mart is a true "prospect." He'll either pan out or he won't. While he is still young, that doesn't guarantee he'll improve a lot. However, I have little doubt he'll be a major presence on a big league club someday; whether that's for the Mets, Twins, or someone else, that is yet to be determined.

For "Prospect Perspective" posts on Phil Hughes, Lastings Milledge, and Joba Chamberlain, scroll down the page!


Billy the kid said...

You make it sound like F-Mart isn't worth anything. He's way more valuable than Ellsbury, Cabrera, and even Gomez. He is one of the best prospects in the game today. How is he not the centerpiece the twins are looking for? hes only 19. I thought you were a met fan. you're starting to sound like all of those mindless braves fans.

Chris Goudoras said...

First of all, Ellsbury is a million times more valuable than F-Mart.
I agree that he's more valuable than Cabrera, that's why he got an "A" value rating.
The twins have plenty of young outfield prospects who may or may not pan out, that's why he's not the centerpiece the Twins are looking for.
As far as comparing me to those "mindless braves fans," that's a pretty big insult.

Billy the kid said...

Okay, but I still believe Nando is more valuable than Ellsbury!

Anonymous said...

"Overall Ability: B+"
Have you ever even seen this kid play? I saw him in St. Lucie last year and he has talent. He is much more talented than Ellsbury, trust me. Also he's younger. I understand you're trying not to sound biased, but C'mon!!!

Anonymous said...

More talent than Ellsbury? ROTFLMAO. You two are idiots!

RollingWave said...

He's ceiling is the highest, but he's nowhere near it. he has a serious chance to be nothing, Cabrera isn't great, but at worest he's a capable 4th OF / fringe starter. he has a very good chance of being a Coco Crisp (Clevland version, where he had 2 season of 110+ OPS+) with the bat. and if your going to build a case largely around a guy being young for the league, guess what, so was / is Cabrera. not many player have over 1000 AB in the majors at age 22 or under, and he's one of them.

Ellsbury may or may not be overhyped. he's a little better than Cabrera with the bat (maybe) and he's clearly faster. but how that will really play out in the majors remains to be seen, if he's what people say he is (Johnny Damon with less pop) then that's not particularly awsome. (Damon's career OPS+ is under 100 .. if you have lower pop than that?) then again with Fenway's help that might be pretty good too if he exploit the Green monster enough.

But that's not the point here, the Yankee package isn't centered around Cabrera, it's centered around Hughes, the twins want Hughes / Cabrera / Kennedy / Marquez as a bare minimum, that's really 1 great prospect, 1 very good prospect (both already reaching the majors) 1 decent young player and another decent pitching prospect. the potential here is very good and more importantly everyone in the package has already either reach the majors or did well in high minors. this package cant' bomb, the only problem is wether it'll be just ok or awsome.

The Red Sox proposed package is similar, almost everyone is either in the majors or near it. the Red Sox package are better rounded but the ceiling potential is a less impressive.

As for Fernando , i really have no idea. I give him a ton of credit for holding his own in AA at that age, but looking at some of his You Tube video of him he often display some horrendous upper cut swing that end up making crap groundballs or popups. that's clearly not a swing of a major leaguer, he needs to be a lot more consistent with the swing before he's anywhere near the majors.